Wishful thinking, count me in

"Thy wish was father, Harry, to that thought...".

(Shakespeare, Henry IV, pt 2)

RITN recommends Scott Shane's news analysis in today's New York Times entitled "As Regimes Fall in Arab World, Al Qaeda Sees History Fly By."

Shane's thesis is that Al Qaeda's interpretation/construction of history is being mooted by the revolutionary changes in North Africa. The revolutionists have resisted religious fanaticism and senseless violence. They have embraced democracy. Thus, says Shane, expert opinion holds that "... the jihadists look like ineffectual bystanders to history while offering young Muslims an appealing alternative to terrorism."

image: public domain
wikicommons; photo by MC2 Jesse Awalt 

Count me among those who hope that this analysis is correct, and though I have worries about implications for global and regional stability, count me also as a liberal internationalist who would support a targeted US intervention to even the playing field, and take the Colonel (and others of his ilk) down, at least if he continues to order strikes on his people.

The unknowns of history, of the future course of human affairs, should humble us. Who is to know whether Al Qaeda will be neutered by these acts? Who is to know whether long-term democratic stability will replace the secular autocratic regimes that have characterized much of the post-colonial Arab world?

Humility of this sort, however, ultimately cuts decidedly against the Colonel, the president for life, and other Pharaohs ancient and modern. Theirs was a usurpation of power that cannot stand the long test of time.

Much experience has shown, however, that the demos (the people) also is a threatening source of power. A liberal democracy, therefore, places limits on the power of the people, often through articulation or recognition of inviolable rights. Let us hope--a wish, with a dash of structure--that such a vision of rights guides a democratic renewal of the Arab world.

North Africa: Worry and Celebration

The recent movement of the human spirit in North Africa is cause to celebrate.  Profound religious, philosophical, and scientific insights combine to suggest that humans prefer freedom, though experience shows that freedom frequently is traded for goods of other kinds.

Juggling on the Berlin Wall
image courtesy: Yann Forget [cc by-sa 3.0]

So it is a miracle of sorts, when long-term freedom compromising calculations drop away all at once. The last time tyranny collapsed so quickly was in 1989 when the Wall of Shame was dismantled and then in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. The uprisings in North Africa are undoing strongmen who crafted a creed for permanent rule by combining secularism, self interest, ruthlessness, and a window dressing of religiosity.

No doubt, realists who favor stability view Egypt and Libya, and the rest of the region, with a  jaundiced eye. That is not a foolish or inhumane position. A period of suppression may very well be followed by a period of wanton destruction. But the realists' larger worries are the unknown implications for regional and global security. How, for example, will Israel’s position be affected? Might religious fanatics seize power? Could a regional conflict be ignited? These questions are breezily dismissed only by fools.

So how should we read the news from North Africa? In a mood of celebration or worry? I propose celebration tinged by worry.

The celebration is for each individual whose life stands to be freer and more self-determined. This low-to-the-ground perspective sees the courage and aspiration of individuals who are undeterred by the force of thugs. Celebration also sees through governmental claims that a new order must lead to destruction. Concern resides in  uncertainty: it is conceivable that everyone could be worse off, if things take a bad turn. However legitimate is this concern, it certainly does not justify governments threatening or killing their citizens.

The future is unknown to us, so principles and values have to guide us in each present. The liberal and Christian creed of the dignity, equality, and inherent freedom of people seem good ones to be relying on just now.

The Unrest in North Africa

Over the next several days, RITN will be posting comments on the unrest in north Africa. Check out this graphic in the New York Times.

These are heady days for advocates of freedom and democracy; they are also days of peril.